Bitcoin tumbles toward $70K as ETFs see heavy outflows; inverse cup-and-handle confirmed
Bitcoin (BTC) plunged toward $70,000 on Feb. 5 after a 7.2% one-day drop to $70,119, marking a roughly 20% decline over the past week and 26% from year-to-date highs. Weak macro data (disappointing U.S. private payrolls) and a tech sell-off following AMD’s weak revenue guidance weighed on risk assets and correlated with BTC’s decline. Institutional demand weakened: the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $2.9 billion in outflows across the past 12 trading days and roughly $5.9 billion since November 2025, removing a key source of steady buying. Technicals are bearish — a multi-month inverse cup-and-handle pattern formed since April 2025 has been confirmed on the daily chart after a break below its neckline. BTC sits below key moving averages (20- and 50-day bearish crossover) and has breached the $75,000 and April 9 $74,660 supports. Short-term downside targets cited are $70,000, with potential deeper liquidity zones near $65,000 and $60,000 if sellers continue to dominate. Disclosure: not investment advice.
Bearish
The article points to both fundamental and technical drivers that favor further downside. On the fundamentals side, substantial ETF outflows (~$2.9B over 12 trading days; ~$5.9B since Nov. 2025) remove a major institutional buyer that previously cushioned drawdowns, increasing vulnerability to sell pressure. Risk-off macro conditions — weak U.S. payrolls and a tech sector sell-off after AMD’s weak guidance — reduce appetite for risky assets and correlate with BTC declines. Technically, a confirmed inverse cup-and-handle and a bearish 20/50-day moving average crossover on the daily chart are classic continuation signals toward lower prices; confirmed breaks of $75k and the April low ($74,660) increase the probability of tests of $70k, then $65k–$60k. Historical parallels: prior periods when ETF inflows reversed to outflows (and when BTC fell below key moving averages and chart support) led to extended corrections as liquidity dried up and stop-loss cascades accelerated (e.g., post-2021/2022 drawdowns during institutional sentiment shifts). For traders: expect elevated volatility, increased likelihood of short-term continuation of the downtrend, and potential shorting or hedging opportunities. Longer term, sustained institutional outflows and continued macro risk could prolong consolidation or a deeper bear phase until demand returns or macro conditions improve. Manage position sizing, use clear stop-loss levels, and watch ETF flows and macro employment/tech earnings for near-term catalysts.