Analysts Warn Bitcoin May Fall Further as It Struggles Near $68K
Bitcoin faces renewed bearish pressure after closing a third consecutive week below the 100-week moving average and trading around $68–69K following a crash to $60K. Analysts including Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin, MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju warn that historical patterns suggest extended periods below the 100-week MA (average ~267 days) and rising unrealized losses. Glasnode reports unrealized market loss at the $70K level is ~16% of market cap. High-volume sell periods — comparable to post-2022 bottom activity — and heavy selling pressure have reduced the market’s pumpability, according to on-chain and market analysts. Some see these conditions as accumulation opportunities (van de Poppe), while others caution that inflows and corporate treasury buys (e.g., MSTR, DATs) won’t spark rallies until selling pressure abates. Bitcoin is down ~44% from its peak and remains in bear-market territory, with the path of least resistance to the downside.
Bearish
Multiple technical and on-chain indicators point to continued downside risk. Closing three consecutive weeks below the 100-week moving average historically precedes extended drawdowns (Coin Bureau cited an average ~267 days below). Rising unrealized losses (~16% of market cap at the $70K level per Glasnode) and unusually high sell-volume periods mirror structures seen around the 2022 bottom, but unlike some past recoveries, analysts report current selling pressure is strong enough to prevent multiplier effects from inflows (CryptoQuant). That reduces the effectiveness of typical bullish catalysts such as large capital inflows or corporate treasury purchases until selling eases. Short-term impact: elevated volatility and downside bias, creating trading opportunities for short sellers and tactical buyers at lower levels. Long-term impact: if prolonged, it may shake out weaker hands and create accumulation phases similar to 2015/2018/2022, but timing of any sustainable reversal depends on a clear reduction in on-chain selling and resumption of demand capable of overcoming current supply pressure.