Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 during Asian trading on Oct. 26 as regional stocks weakened and traders reduced risk ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27–28 meeting. It later recovered to about $80,440, but remained roughly 4% below its level at the start of Oct. 22.
The decline came as South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.8%, amid concerns about AI company valuations and higher oil prices. CME FedWatch data showed a 90.6% chance of the Fed holding rates at 3.75%–4%, versus a 9.4% chance of a quarter-point increase. Bitcoin could remain sensitive to the Fed decision and inflation concerns.
The $80,000–$81,500 area is significant because Glassnode estimates it as the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, a level that has provided support this month. However, leveraged positions clustered near $85,000 and $87,000 could amplify volatility. US GDP and PCE inflation data are due Oct. 29, followed by about $11 billion in Bitcoin options expiring on Oct. 30.
Bearish
The immediate signal is mildly bearish for Bitcoin: it briefly broke below $80,000 amid weakness in Asian equities and a broader reduction in risk-taking before a major central-bank decision. Higher oil prices and concerns that they could lift inflation expectations add another potential headwind. If traders interpret the Fed’s decision or guidance as more hawkish than expected, Bitcoin could face renewed selling, particularly if the $80,000–$81,500 cost-basis zone fails to hold.
There are also factors that may limit downside. Markets currently assign a 90.6% probability to a rate hold, and Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 after its brief dip. The ETF and corporate-treasury cost-basis range has acted as support this month. A sustained hold above that area could encourage dip-buying, while leveraged positions near $85,000 and $87,000 may draw prices higher if the market rebounds. Conversely, liquidations can accelerate moves in either direction.
Similar pre-Fed risk-off episodes have often produced sharp but short-lived swings, with the eventual direction depending on the policy message and subsequent economic data rather than the decision alone. In the short term, traders may see elevated volatility around the Fed announcement, Oct. 29 GDP and PCE releases, and the roughly $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Oct. 30. Over the longer term, this article does not establish a change in Bitcoin’s fundamental trend; the impact will depend on inflation, interest-rate expectations, ETF flows and whether key support holds. The bearish label therefore reflects near-term risk, not certainty of a sustained decline.