Hayes: Fed RMP Could Drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by Early 2025
Former BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) — which he and some market observers view as a form of quantitative easing — could materially boost liquidity and push Bitcoin (BTC) much higher. Hayes expects BTC to trade in a choppy $80,000–$100,000 range through late 2024, reclaim $124,000, and then surge toward $200,000 by around March 2025, followed by a corrective pullback with a local bottom still above $124,000. He stresses that RMP-driven asset-price expectations should peak around early 2026 in one account and that the size of Treasury purchases relative to today’s money supply limits the credit impulse. Separately, on-chain analyst CryptoQuant warns of downside risk: if demand growth slows, BTC could fall toward roughly $56,000 with intermediate support near $70,000. At publication BTC was trading near $88,000, roughly 30% below its all-time high. Traders should monitor FOMC guidance, RMP implementation, liquidity metrics and on-chain demand signals — these will likely determine the magnitude and timing of BTC flows and volatility. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, Fed liquidity, quantitative easing, RMP, BTC price target.
Bullish
The combined coverage leans bullish for BTC price due to Hayes’s thesis that the Fed’s RMP functions like QE, increasing liquidity that could flow into inflation-hedge assets including Bitcoin. Hayes’s scenario outlines a clear path: consolidation in the $80k–$100k range, a reclaim of $124k, then a rapid move toward $200k — a view that, if markets accept RMP as easing, would drive strong bid-side flows and higher volatility. That said, credible bearish inputs remain: CryptoQuant’s warning of demand slowdown and potential pullback to ~$56k introduces meaningful downside risk. Short-term traders should expect choppy action and volatility spikes around Fed communications and RMP execution updates. Longer-term, if RMP persists and liquidity transmission to risk assets continues, structural upside is plausible, supporting the bullish classification; but position sizing and risk controls are necessary given the asymmetric risk of sharp corrections highlighted by on-chain analysts.