Fidelity: Bitcoin and gold signal a shift from dollar settlement

Fidelity Digital Assets says there is “growing evidence” that some countries are testing settlement routes outside dollar-led systems. In its 2026 report, the firm points to geopolitical, sanction-relevant trade flows where Bitcoin could be discussed as a cross-border settlement and reserve asset—though confirmed adoption signals remain mixed. On Bitcoin, Fidelity highlights disputed claims that Iran may use “Bitcoin toll” activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian-linked media denied that Tehran is already collecting Strait tolls in Bitcoin or stablecoins. Fidelity also notes a separate Iran-linked proposal for a marine insurance model that could generate more than $10 billion, but it does not clearly confirm live Bitcoin payments. For gold, Fidelity argues central-bank demand remains strong, even after gold’s pullback from its January peak near $5,600/oz. It also notes gold’s reserve role is still supported, while Bitcoin’s relative catch-up after gold outperformance has “yet to materialize.” Stablecoins add a policy contrast: the U.S. froze about $344 million in USDT linked to Iran, including tokens associated with the IRGC. The episode reinforces enforcement risk for dollar-backed tokens, aligning with Fidelity’s broader theme that alternative settlement mechanisms are gaining attention. Traders should treat this as a sentiment tailwind for Bitcoin’s “settlement narrative,” but with timing risk versus gold and with adoption still unproven in practice.