Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Warn of One More BTC Drop Before Cycle Bottom

Published: 2026-06-23 13:29:14 |

Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a possible cycle bottom, but analysts say there may be one final drop before a turn. Analyst “Ted” expects BTC to form another lower high first. On the 2-day and 12-hour BTC/USD charts, price has failed to reclaim resistance around $75,000. Ted says BTC has broken below a rising trend line and a key horizontal support near $75,000, with a potential bounce that could still create a lower high before sellers push BTC down again. The bearish structure weakens only if BTC reclaims the $75,000 resistance zone and prints higher highs. A second analyst, “CW,” points to a long-term logarithmic regression channel. CW says BTC is trading near the lower boundary of a growth channel that has historically marked major market bottoms in past cycles (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022). This area has often aligned with long-term investor accumulation, though no exact timing is given and volatility could continue before a definitive BTC bottom forms. Traders are watching whether BTC holds within the lower regression range or breaks down further.

Bearish

The article centers on a BTC technical setup that still leans bearish in the short term, despite acknowledging a long-term “historical bottom signal.” Ted’s view highlights a breakdown below the rising trend line and key support near $75,000, plus a possible lower-high formation that could precede another sharp decline—this is typically a continuation-risk signal for swing traders. CW’s logarithmic regression channel suggests BTC is approaching a historically important accumulation zone, but it does not confirm immediate reversal timing. Historically, when price repeatedly fails to reclaim prior resistance and starts printing lower highs, rallies often fade before a final flush. That combination usually keeps downside pressure elevated until BTC regains the $75,000 zone and invalidates the lower-high structure. In the long run, the regression-band proximity can improve confidence for accumulation, but near-term market stability may remain fragile until the “one more drop” scenario is either played out or clearly invalidated.