Bitcoin October Drop: First Red Since 2018, Triple-Top Risk
The Bitcoin October decline broke the traditional “Uptober” rally, posting a 3.7% drop to close near $110,000—the first red October since 2018. The pullback followed a record $XX billion liquidation event on October 10–11 as traders de-risked amid heightened volatility. Geopolitical tensions, including proposed 100% US tariffs on Chinese imports, and the Federal Reserve’s hesitation to cut interest rates weighed on sentiment. Technical indicators reveal a triple-top pattern, with each rally peak met by sharp pullbacks.
Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains up over 16% year-to-date, supported by ongoing policy backing. However, thinning liquidity and balanced high-leverage positions heighten risk. Traders should monitor key levels: reclaiming $114,000 to confirm a renewed uptrend and defending $110,000 support amid low weekend liquidity. The protracted US government shutdown that delays economic data releases adds further uncertainty. Prepare for continued liquidation events, potential price wicks, and increased market volatility.
Bearish
The unified news underscores bearish signals for Bitcoin. October’s first red close since 2018, a record liquidation event, a triple-top pattern, and challenges in reclaiming $114,000 all signal downside risk. Thinning liquidity, balanced high-leverage positions, geopolitical tensions, and a US government shutdown heighten short-term volatility. While Bitcoin remains up year-to-date, traders may face further pullbacks and sharp wicks before a sustainable uptrend. In the long term, resilience depends on policy support and macro stability, but near-term momentum appears weak.