FOMC Week: Bitcoin’s ’Up-Then-Down’ Pattern Ahead of Fed Rate Cuts
Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the $92,000 level ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting as traders weigh whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. CryptoQuant/XWIN Research Japan highlights a recurring pattern: during the last two Fed rate-cut announcements (Sept 17 and Oct 29), Bitcoin rallied before the decision, briefly bounced after the cut, then fell as traders took profits — a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic. Current indicators to watch include stablecoin exchange reserves (as a proxy for deployable liquidity) and funding rates (to gauge leverage). The weekly chart shows BTC stabilizing around the 100-week moving average near $91,800, defended by long-term holders, but still trading below the 50-week MA — signaling medium-term bearish pressure. Volume profile shows weaker buy-side conviction during recent selling spikes, suggesting rallies may face resistance until demand strengthens. The report concludes that Bitcoin’s FOMC reaction will depend on macro liquidity improvements interacting with on-chain positioning; risk-managed trades are advised given potential for volatility spikes if positioning is stretched.
Neutral
The article presents a mixed market signal. Historical behavior around FOMC rate cuts shows short-term rallies before announcements followed by profit-taking after — a pattern that historically produces volatility rather than sustained directional moves. Current on-chain and macro indicators are ambiguous: BTC is holding the 100-week moving average (bullish support) but remains below the 50-week MA (medium-term bearish). Stablecoin reserves and funding rates are the key variables that will determine whether liquidity can fuel a sustained rally or whether traders will unwind positions. Given the combination of potential macro liquidity improvement (supportive) and fragile positioning after a 36% correction (risk of leveraged unwind), the likely immediate market reaction is uncertain — swings and heightened volatility are the most probable outcomes. For traders: expect short-term range-bound or choppy price action around the FOMC, use tighter risk management, watch funding rates and stablecoin flows for directional clues, and avoid aggressive directional leverage until sustained demand and a move above the 50-week MA confirm momentum.