Research: Bitcoin’s Four‑Year Cycle Intact — Bear Market and Gradual Decline Expected
New research argues Bitcoin’s historical four‑year cycle remains intact and signals an upcoming bear phase characterized by a gradual decline rather than a sudden crash. Analysts examined multi‑year price patterns tied to halving events and found recurring stages: post‑halving run‑ups, peaks, corrective bear markets, and extended consolidation. The study suggests the next phase will mirror prior cycles with lower highs and prolonged downward drift driven by weakening momentum, reduced speculative demand, and on‑chain metrics that historically precede drawdowns. Traders are cautioned to expect increased volatility, longer accumulation windows, and diminished correlation with macro risk assets during this phase. Key implications include favoring risk management (smaller position sizes, tighter stops), using spot accumulation strategies on ordered dips, and preparing for a multi‑month to year‑long bear/consolidation before the next bullish cycle resumes. Primary keywords: Bitcoin cycle, bear market, halving; secondary keywords: price patterns, volatility, on‑chain metrics.
Bearish
The research points to a recurring multi‑year pattern tied to Bitcoin’s halving cycle that historically leads into bear markets and extended consolidation. Those past cycles (post‑2013 and post‑2017) featured multi‑month declines and long accumulation phases before the next bullish run. Key indicators cited — weakening momentum, falling on‑chain activity, and cooling speculative demand — typically presage downward price pressure, making a conservative, risk‑aware posture appropriate. In the short term, expect elevated volatility and episodic sell‑offs as traders adjust positions; spot and derivatives liquidity may thin, amplifying moves. In the medium to long term, the environment favors dollar‑cost averaging and selective accumulation during capitulation rather than aggressive leverage, with the probability that a sustained recovery will only appear after on‑chain signals and macro conditions realign. Therefore the expected market reaction is net bearish until clear confirmation of renewed demand and higher highs emerge.