Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle May Peak in Next 100 Days, Analyst Says
An analyst on social media platform X, known as Frank Fetter, suggests that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could drive the price to a new peak within the next 100 days. The theory is based on the Bitcoin Index Performance chart, which tracks BTC’s gains since each cycle low. In the 2015–2018 cycle, BTC rose 110x over 1,068 days. The 2018–2022 cycle saw a 21x increase in 1,060 days. In the current cycle, Bitcoin is up 7.3x from its 2022 low at day 997. If the pattern holds, the flagship cryptocurrency may still have one final bullish leg. However, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 and increased institutional involvement have added unpredictability to market dynamics. A sustained rally beyond the expected 100-day window could signal a departure from the four-year cycle theory, potentially leading to longer bull runs and shorter bear phases. As of now, Bitcoin trades around $117,625, up 0.3% in 24 hours.
Bullish
Frank Fetter’s analysis points to a final leg of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, implying a continued price rally over the next 100 days. Historically, both previous cycles delivered substantial gains before peaking—110x in 2018 and 21x in 2022—suggesting that traders could capitalize on the remaining bullish momentum. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows has increased volatility but has not yet invalidated the classical cycle model. Short-term, traders may position for further upside toward the cycle top. Long-term, a continuation or breakdown of this pattern could reshape bull and bear durations in the crypto market, but the immediate outlook remains positive.