Institutional Inflows Challenge Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle
The Bitcoin four-year cycle, historically driven by halving events and marked by price peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, now faces new market forces. Heavy institutional inflows have pushed the top 100 BTC treasury holders to nearly one million coins, prompting investor Jason Williams and Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan to argue that the halving-based cycle is ending. Community leader Harry Collins expects a peak in October 2025, while Bitcoin developer Pierre Rochard notes that 95% of BTC supply is already mined, reducing halving’s supply impact. Opponents, including Sygnum’s Martin Burgherr, maintain that the four-year cycle remains a useful reference amid shifting macro factors. Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB and Xapo CEO Seamus Rocca add that ETF adoption and institutional entry may reinforce or coexist with the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Traders should monitor institutional inflows, ETF adoption, regulatory shifts and macroeconomic trends alongside traditional halving dynamics.
Neutral
This news is neutral for BTC prices because it highlights both bullish factors—such as rising institutional inflows and ETF adoption—and enduring influences from the halving cycle. While heavy treasury holdings and ETF flows may support long-term demand, uncertainty around the cycle’s evolution could limit sharp price moves in the short term. Traders should watch how institutional behavior, regulatory updates and macro trends interplay with the traditional four-year cycle.