Fractal Model Sees Bitcoin at $40K–$45K by 2026; On‑chain Signals and MACD Offer Contrasting View
Bitcoin has fallen from a $126,000 all-time high to around $87,000 and is undergoing a notable correction. The Bitcoin Repeating Cycle fractal indicator — which correctly signaled the October peak — now flags a bearish phase that could last until 16 October 2026 and projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $45,000 (a 64–68% drawdown from the ATH). However, key on-chain metrics and technical indicators challenge that deep‑bear projection. Accumulation/Distribution data show no major distribution: traded volume slipped only marginally (from 17.63m BTC to 17.52m BTC), unlike the sharp volume collapse seen in 2021. The MACD histogram, while bearish, is lightening from deep red toward neutral — often a prelude to recovery. Institutional adoption and liquidity also differ from earlier cycles: spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and Hong Kong and roughly $116.6bn of estimated U.S. institutional inflows, alongside expanded global M2 liquidity (~$147 trillion), create a supportive backdrop that could limit downside. Traders should weigh the fractal’s warning of a multi‑month bearish phase and possible $40K–$45K bottom against bullish structural factors (ETF inflows, steady on‑chain volume, softer MACD). Short‑term risk remains elevated while medium‑term direction may hinge on whether selling pressure intensifies or institutional demand continues to absorb volatility.
Neutral
The article presents two opposing sets of evidence. The fractal / repeating-cycle model projects a prolonged bearish phase and a possible $40K–$45K bottom by October 2026, which is clearly negative for price expectations and could trigger risk-averse positioning and increased short interest. Conversely, on-chain metrics (stable traded volume, lack of major distribution) and technical signals (MACD histogram improving) alongside significant institutional adoption (spot ETFs and large estimated U.S. inflows) and expanded global liquidity provide structural support that can limit downside. Historically, sharp multi-month declines accompanied by clear distribution (as in 2021) led to deeper bear markets; absent that distribution, corrections have often been shallower. For traders: expect elevated short-term volatility and risk of further downside while key confirmatory signals (rising distribution, accelerating outflows, MACD breakdown) would increase the probability of a deep cycle top-to-bottom decline. If institutional inflows persist and on-chain activity remains stable, the market is more likely to stabilize or recover, making the medium-term outlook less bearish. Therefore the balanced assessment is neutral — significant risk exists, but material bullish factors could offset it.