Bitcoin Futures Dip Below Spot, Signaling De-Risking
Bitcoin futures have flipped into negative territory for the first time since March 2025, trading below the spot price and erasing the typical premium for leverage. This negative futures basis signals growing trader caution and de-risking. At the same time, internal exchange flows on major platforms have surged, a historical marker of liquidity stress and heightened volatility. The seven- and 30-day moving averages of the futures basis are both trending downward, confirming a bearish tilt.
Data also shows the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio cooling back toward 0.3, indicating reduced forced-liquidation risk and a healthier leverage structure. Historically, negative basis readings in bull phases have sometimes preceded short-term bottoms, but similar signals in January 2022 marked deeper downturns. A return above a 0%–0.5% futures basis range would be the first sign of renewed confidence. Until then, the combination of a negative basis, rising internal flows, and accelerating downside momentum suggests Bitcoin may continue its search for a bottom.
Bearish
The shift to a negative Bitcoin futures basis reflects systematic de-risking and growing trader caution. Historically, spikes in internal exchange flows coincide with liquidity stress and corrections, intensifying market volatility. The concurrent decline in both short-term and longer moving averages of the futures basis confirms a bearish market structure. Although past negative basis readings during bull phases have sometimes marked local lows, similar signals in early 2022 led into deeper downturns. With a current leverage ratio reset and continued downside momentum, traders are likely to remain cautious in the short term. Unless the futures basis recovers above 0%–0.5%, indicating renewed confidence, bearish pressure is expected to persist. However, the cleaned-up leverage environment could set the stage for a more sustainable rebound once risk appetite returns.