Bitcoin and Gold Are 2026’s Worst-Performing Assets
Bitcoin and gold have become the worst-performing major asset classes of 2026, an unprecedented pairing in Charlie Bilello’s data dating back to 2011. Gold is down about 10% year to date and Bitcoin has fallen more than 11%, placing both at the bottom of a ranking of 21 asset classes. By comparison, commodities have gained over 50%, US large-cap stocks more than 12%, and short-term Treasury bills nearly 3%.
The reversal follows strong gains in 2025 and early 2026, when investors bought gold and Bitcoin as hedges against debt, deficits and currency debasement. Higher oil prices have since revived inflation concerns and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. That shift has weighed on non-yielding assets, as higher interest rates make cash and government debt more attractive.
Bitcoin has fallen about 35% from its 2025 peak of $126,000, despite a rebound to $87,000, and could post a second consecutive annual loss if conditions do not improve. The longer-term record remains stronger: Bilello’s figures show Bitcoin returned about 120.6% annualized since 2011, compared with 6.3% for gold.
Bearish
The article points to a challenging near-term backdrop for Bitcoin. Oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy can lift yields and increase the appeal of cash and government bonds, reducing demand for non-yielding assets. Bitcoin’s decline of more than 11% year to date and roughly 35% from its peak also signals weak momentum and may encourage risk reduction, stop-loss selling or caution among short-term traders. Its rejection near $87,000 is another potential technical headwind, although the article does not provide broader market or on-chain indicators.
Similar shifts in rate expectations have historically pressured risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, while investors reassess liquidity and the cost of holding volatile positions. In the short term, continued inflation or further hawkish signals could reinforce selling and increase volatility; a sustained recovery in Bitcoin would likely require improving macro conditions and renewed buying demand. The longer-term picture is less negative: the article notes Bitcoin’s strong annualized return since 2011. That history may support longer-horizon investors, but it does not remove near-term downside risks or guarantee a reversal. The overall market implication is therefore bearish, while recognizing that the report describes performance and macro pressures rather than a new Bitcoin-specific catalyst.