Has Bitcoin’s Four-Year Halving Cycle Lost Its Edge?
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has long guided traders through predictable bull and bear phases. However, since the April 2024 halving, price action has felt muted. Bitcoin peaked at $125,000 in October 2025—within the typical 12–18 month window post-halving—but lacked the blow-off top seen in 2017 and 2021. Limited altcoin rotation and a swift 25% drop back below $90,000 highlight restrained market sentiment. Institutional flows via Bitcoin spot ETFs have smoothed volatility and altered trading dynamics, with average ETF entry costs around $89,000. On-chain metrics—MVRV, SOPR, RHODL—still track historical cycles but reflect lower amplitude highs and diminishing marginal returns per halving. Emerging market narratives have also fragmented into rapid rotations across ETFs, inscriptions, Solana, crypto AI, and niche DeFi variants, diluting a unified market rhythm.
Experts remain divided: some see institutional dominance as redefining cycles, while others argue supply-driven halving fundamentals persist. Traders should monitor ETF flow reversals, on-chain profit-taking signals, and support at prevailing cost-basis levels. Given the potentially ended late-stage rally and higher thresholds for new highs, a defensive stance with capital preservation is prudent until clear signs of renewed accumulation emerge.
Bearish
This analysis signals a bearish outlook. Bitcoin’s muted rally since the 2024 halving, quick 25% correction from the $125,000 peak, and lack of broad altcoin follow-through suggest waning speculative fervor. Institutional ETF flows have stabilized price action but raise hurdles for fresh upside, especially as current support hovers near the $89,000 ETF cost basis. On-chain metrics confirm a lower-amplitude late-stage market. Similar to the 2017 cycle’s abrupt end once derivatives triggers and profit-taking accelerated, this phase appears to mark the conclusion of the main bull leg. Traders should brace for choppy, defensive trading until clear accumulation signs emerge around key cost zones.