Bitcoin Shifts from Halving Cycle to US Stock Market Correlation
Linekong Interactive founder Wang Feng suggested that Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from its traditional halving cycle and is increasingly moving in tandem with the US stock market and broader economic trends. He also noted that Ethereum and the wider cryptocurrency market could follow a similar trajectory. This shift implies growing macro correlation, which market participants should monitor using metrics like correlation coefficients, realized volatility, on-chain flows, and beta against equities. Traders and institutions are advised to employ robust risk management strategies—including diversification, dynamic allocation, and liquidity stress testing—to adjust position sizing and hedging based on monetary policy and liquidity conditions.
Neutral
We classify the impact as neutral because Wang Feng’s observation indicates a shift in Bitcoin’s trading drivers rather than a direct bullish or bearish signal. Increased correlation with the US stock market underscores macro influences like monetary policy and global economic cycles. Historically, similar correlation spikes occurred during major market events—such as the COVID-19 crash—without guaranteeing trend direction. This alignment may heighten volatility and cross-asset contagion risks, prompting traders to emphasize risk management. In the short term, Bitcoin’s price movements may mirror equity market fluctuations, while long-term prospects still depend on fundamental factors like adoption and network effects. As such, the news suggests a need for adaptive strategies rather than clear directional bias.