VanEck: Bitcoin hashrate fall and miner stress may set up 2026 rally
VanEck’s ChainCheck reports a roughly 4% decline in Bitcoin network hashrate (30-day MA), the largest pullback since April 2024, coinciding with a ~9% December price drop to about $87,000, 30-day volatility above 45% and lower perpetual-futures funding (≈5% annualized). VanEck attributes the hashrate fall to weaker prices, rising competition and miner shutdowns (notably reported outages in China’s Xinjiang that could remove ~10% of global hashpower). Miner economics have tightened: the breakeven electricity cost for older S19 XP miners fell from about $0.12/kWh to ~$0.08/kWh year‑over‑year, daily fee revenue is down month‑on‑month, and some miners are being forced offline. Institutional flows are divergent — spot Bitcoin ETP holdings fell ~120 bps month‑over‑month to ~1.308 million BTC, while corporate treasuries added roughly 42,000 BTC between mid‑Nov and mid‑Dec (the largest accumulation since July), driven by firms able to issue equity. On‑chain cohorts show short‑to‑medium term holders (1–5 years) trimming balances — notably a 12.5% drop in the 2–3 year cohort — while >5‑year holders remain mostly unchanged. Historically, VanEck finds periods when 90‑day hashrate growth turns negative have preceded positive 180‑day BTC returns 77% of the time (average ~72% gain); buying during such periods historically improved 180‑day returns by ~2,400 bps. For traders: monitor hashrate trends, funding rates, ETP flows and corporate accumulation. The near term looks fragile with elevated volatility and miner capitulation risk; the medium term may offer a contrarian buying opportunity if historical patterns repeat, potentially underpinning stronger returns into 2026.
Bullish
The combined reporting points to short‑term stress — falling hashrate, weaker miner economics, elevated volatility and reduced ETP inflows — which increases near‑term downside and capitulation risk. However, VanEck highlights a historical pattern where negative 90‑day hashrate growth often precedes strong 180‑day gains (77% of instances, ~72% average return), and corporate accumulation has added a sizeable, stabilising demand component (~42,000 BTC). These factors create a classic contrarian setup: short‑term volatility and miner capitulation can shake out weak hands, while continued corporate buying and resilient long‑term holder balances provide demand support. For traders, this implies elevated risk and opportunity: expect continued price swings and monitoring signals (hashrate trend, funding rates, ETP flows, corporate buys). If hashrate stabilises or corporate accumulation continues, probability of medium‑term upside increases — hence a bullish classification for price over a 3–6+ month horizon despite short‑term fragility.