Bitcoin HODLing, call buying fuel case for $100K despite Fed pick uncertainty
Bitcoin traders face renewed optimism amid macro uncertainty after President Trump’s mixed signals on the next Fed Chair sparked risk-off moves and a brief BTC pullback. Despite elevated volatility, on-chain and derivatives indicators show a divergence: strong HODLing from whales (notably December buyers with cost-basis near $90k–$92k) and continued institutional demand (MicroStrategy tightening supply). The options market has shifted toward calls, with the put/call ratio falling about 10% to 0.71 — implying roughly 71 calls per 100 options traded and increased bullish positioning. Historical episodes (e.g., October rollover then 30% slide into November) counsel caution, but current positioning suggests holders and institutions are resisting capitulation. For traders, this mix means short-term volatility risk remains high around macro headlines and Fed decisions, while the balance of supply-side behaviour and options skew supports an upside case toward $100k if HODLing and institutional demand persist.
Bullish
The article highlights a divergence between macro-driven risk-off events and on-chain/derivatives data that point to bullish positioning. Key bullish signals: persistent HODLing by whales (buyers with cost basis ~$90k–$92k resisting capitulation), continued institutional accumulation (MicroStrategy reducing circulating supply), and a falling put/call ratio (~0.71) indicating more call exposure. These factors increase upside pressure and reduce available sell-side liquidity, which can amplify rallies when volatility subsides. Historical precedent (October’s bounce then 30% slide into November) shows macro uncertainty can trigger sharp downside; therefore short-term risk remains elevated around Fed-related headlines and potential flash crashes. However, because supply-side holders are not capitulating and options skew favors calls, the medium-term bias is bullish — traders should expect volatile price action but a higher probability of upside continuation toward $100k if institutional buying and HODLing persist. Tactically, traders might: 1) trade tight risk management around macro events, 2) favour position sizing that accounts for potential flash moves, and 3) monitor put/call skew, whale flows and institutional filings for confirmation of sustained demand.