Bitcoin Impact Index jumps to 57.4 as nearly half of BTC trades below cost
The Bitcoin Impact Index rebounded sharply, jumping 13 points to 57.4. This composite on-chain and ETF/derivatives liquidity signal implies renewed stress, with nearly half of circulating BTC trading below its acquisition price—a setup historically linked to sell-offs and double-digit drawdowns (2018, 2022).
Losses are spreading. After intensified selling from levels above $70,000 weeks earlier, about 4.6 million BTC (around 30% of supply) for long-term holders moved underwater and hit the worst loss conditions since 2023. Short-term holders are also pressured: 47% of total BTC supply is priced below the last purchase cost, a ratio last seen in February’s most stressed period.
Capital flows have turned less supportive. Stablecoin net flows swung from an average inflow of about $250M to an outflow near $292M. ETFs and miners have also reduced holdings.
Traders should note one partial buffer: on-chain data cited suggests no mass “panic” transfer to exchanges yet, which often precedes cascading liquidations. Still, the deterioration in Bitcoin Impact Index and underwater supply raises near-term downside risk.
Bearish
The news is bearish for BTC mainly because it combines a rising downside-stress signal (Bitcoin Impact Index to 57.4) with worsening “underwater” positioning: 47% of total supply and ~30% of long-term holdings are below cost. Historically, these conditions align with sell-off waves and double-digit drawdowns. Even though there is no clear panic transfer to exchanges yet (a near-term stabilizer), the shift in stablecoin flows from net inflow to net outflow and reports of ETF/miner de-risking reduce the probability of an immediate rebound. For traders, this raises the risk of further downside and liquidation-driven volatility, while longer-term recovery may be delayed until losses stabilize or exchange inflows rise without cascading liquidation.