Bitcoin Impact Index jump reach 57.4 as near half of BTC dey trade below cost
Di Bitcoin Impact Index bounce back sharp, jump 13 points go reach 57.4. Dis composite on-chain and ETF/derivatives liquidity signal dey mean say stress don come back, as near half of circulating BTC dey trade below wetin people buy am — situation wey historically dey follow sell-offs and double-digit drops (2018, 2022).
Losses dey spread. After heavy selling from level pass $70,000 weeks before, about 4.6 million BTC (around 30% of supply) wey long-term holders get don enter loss and reach the worst loss condition since 2023. Short-term holders dey pressure too: 47% of total BTC supply dey priced below last buying cost, ratio wey last show for February stress time.
Capital flows don turn less supportive. Stablecoin net flows change from average inflow of about $250M to outflow near $292M. ETFs and miners don also reduce holdings.
Traders make una note one partial buffer: on-chain data wey dem cite show say no mass “panic” transfer go exchanges yet, wey usually dey come before cascading liquidations. Still, the worsening Bitcoin Impact Index and underwater supply dey raise near-term downside risk.
Bearish
Di news dey bearish for BTC mainly because e combine rising downside-stress signal (Bitcoin Impact Index reach 57.4) with worsening “underwater” positioning: 47% of total supply and about 30% of long-term holdings dey below cost. Historically, these conditions dey align with sell-off waves and double-digit drawdowns. Even though no clear panic transfer to exchanges yet (which fit act as short-term stabilizer), the shift for stablecoin flows from net inflow to net outflow and reports of ETF/miner de-risking reduce the chance of immediate rebound. For traders, this one raise the risk of further downside and liquidation-driven volatility, while longer-term recovery fit delay until losses stabilize or exchange inflows rise without cascading liquidation.