Will Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Extend Amid Institutional Shift?

Bitcoin is undergoing a historic shift from retail-driven volatility to institutional dominance. As ETFs launch and large-scale investors enter, Bitcoin’s four-year bull-bear cycle may stretch longer. Institutional participation deepens liquidity, reduces volatility and could prolong bull phases to 18–24 months, while bear corrections become shallower. Traders must adapt by refining position management: define time horizons (position, swing or day trading), allocate capital across assets and execute strict entry and exit rules. Macro indicators like the US ISM PMI and the Leading Economic Index (LEI) now closely correlate with Bitcoin’s price action. A sustained LEI uptrend with PMI below 50 may keep Bitcoin range-bound between $120k and $80k. If both indicators rise, we could see new highs above $150k. Conversely, a sharp LEI decline and PMI under 45 could trigger a bear market in early 2026. Rather than fixating on a precise four-year rhythm, traders should focus on flexible strategies, stop-loss plans and risk control. A longer, flatter market dominated by professional “sickle” traders demands patience, discipline and robust position sizing. Preparing for extended cycles and shallower downturns will be key to long-term success in an increasingly institutional Bitcoin market.