Bitcoin Nears $90K as Unexpected Drop in Jobless Claims Dampens Rate-cut Hopes

Published: 2025-12-31 15:04:37 |

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed toward $90,000 after the U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, below economists’ forecasts above 200,000. The stronger-than-expected labor data reduces the likelihood of early 2026 Federal Reserve rate cuts, a development that can weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin by dampening speculative demand. Analysts caution year-end data can be noisy owing to seasonal hiring and reporting effects. Traders should watch BTC price action and macro indicators — especially further labor reports, inflation readings, and Fed guidance — as they will influence short-term volatility and the timing of potential rallies or pullbacks. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, jobless claims, Federal Reserve. Secondary/semantic keywords: BTC price, interest rates, rate cuts, labor market, macro data, speculative demand.

Bearish

The unexpected drop in U.S. initial jobless claims to 199,000 signals a stronger labor market, which reduces near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. For risk assets like Bitcoin, the prospect of delayed rate cuts is typically negative: it curbs speculative demand and increases the chance of short-term sell-offs. Historically, stronger-than-expected U.S. macro data (employment, CPI) has coincided with BTC underperformance during tightening or non-easing cycles, as investors rotate toward cash and yield-sensitive assets. In the short term, expect increased volatility and potential downward pressure on BTC as traders reprice Fed-cut expectations. Over the medium-to-long term, Bitcoin’s direction will depend on whether stronger labor data leads to sustained economic strength (which could eventually allow a controlled easing later) or prompts tighter financial conditions; either scenario keeps macro risk prominent. Traders should monitor Fed communications, upcoming employment and inflation prints, and on-chain/derivatives indicators (funding rates, open interest) to time entries and manage risk.