Bitcoin lags as S&P 500 adds $2T; stablecoins fall
Bitcoin is not keeping pace with risk assets. While the S&P 500 has gained 3.12% this month—adding about $2.1 trillion in market cap—Bitcoin is up only ~2%, trading around $64,600.
Traders cite a narrow, AI-led equity rally that benefits sectors like megacap tech and semiconductors more than Bitcoin. Even macro positives (eg, falling oil prices) may take longer to feed into crypto via inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy.
Bitcoin-specific headwinds also matter. The article points to a $120m Coldcard exploit damaging sentiment, uncertainty around the “Clarity Act,” and reports that Strategy sold BTC for three consecutive months. Separately, rising bond yields are framed as pressuring crypto via stablecoin outflows. USDT supply is reported down to about $183bn (from ~$190bn in April), and USDC has fallen to about $72bn (from ~$79.5bn).
Positioning is another factor tied to the four-year halving cycle. Analyst Markus Thielen says many traders expect an October bottom and therefore stay on the sidelines, even as equities rally. Others add that ETF demand has been erratic: US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $61.53m, with some inflows this week, but sustained recovery likely needs multiple consecutive inflow days.
Bitcoin remains range-bound, with one market view citing support around $63,000–$63,400 and resistance near $64,500–$66,000.
Neutral
The article’s core signal is relative performance: equities (S&P 500) are rallying broadly, but Bitcoin is lagging. That divergence is driven by (1) AI/mega-cap concentration in the equity rally (less direct beta to BTC), (2) crypto-specific negatives (Coldcard exploit sentiment hit, Strategy selling reports), and (3) macro pressure transmitted through higher yields and stablecoin outflows (USDT/USDC shrinking). Those factors are typically bearish short-term because they reduce spot buying power and institutional momentum.
However, the piece also flags potential offsetting forces: halving-cycle positioning may be “late” rather than broken (traders waiting for an October bottom), and BTC’s failure to drop lower despite a hawkish Fed is framed as a possible bullish sign (less downside momentum). ETF demand is not uniformly negative—there are inflows this week—so the market may be close to a catalyst threshold.
Compared with prior cycles where ETF narratives and macro liquidity shift drove short bursts, this setup looks more like a range/rotation regime than a clear trend reversal. In the short term, expect choppy price action unless stablecoin supply stops falling and ETF inflows become consistent. In the long term, if regulatory clarity and stablecoin growth return (as suggested), Bitcoin could re-couple to risk assets more meaningfully during Q4.
Net: mixed drivers (bearish liquidity/positioning on one side, potential cyclical/bottoming upside on the other) support a neutral bias rather than a one-way call.