Risk of liquidity crunch: Hilbert dey warn say BTC fit face short-term pressure
Digital asset manager Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson dey warn say global liquidity fit worsen by 20%–25%, even if di Iran geopolitical flare-up cool down. E talk say risk-asset rallies fit struggle to sustain without “external support” from central banks, and say wide wave of liquidity tightening fit weigh down Bitcoin (BTC) for near term.
Thompson point to possible US policy “stabilization” tools like easing banks’ SLR rule to expand exposure to di Treasury market, drawing down di Treasury General Account (TGA) to inject liquidity, and a potential Fed-led rate-cut cycle under new chair. E note say di Reserve Maturity Program fit help stabilize some short-term bank funding, but overall liquidity outlook still tight.
For context, BTC top near $126k in Oct 2025, fall about 50% to ~$63k by Feb, and now around $75.6k as e shift from decline toward consolidation. Catalysts wey e dey watch include possible crypto regulatory legal clarity before US Congress recess dis summer and di Fed balance sheet expanding faster as disinflation pressures build.
Net for traders: BTC fit face near-term headwinds if liquidity tightens, but di base case remain constructive—“significant upside” by year-end, with liquidity trough possibly around 2027 wey fit align with another BTC high.
Bearish
Di latest update tok say say 20%–25% liquidity tightening cycle fit still control di macro background even if di Iran matter calm down. For BTC, dis dey raise short-term downside risk because dem dey talk say liquidity na di main driver for direction, and any possible stabilizing moves (SLR easing, TGA drawdown, rate cuts) dem see as mitigation no be immediate full offset. Even though BTC don fall about ~50% from im October 2025 peak and e dey stabilize near ~$75.6k, traders fit still dey cautious until liquidity indicators and Fed/Treasury policy headlines confirm sey regime don turn less restrictive. Di medium-term upside case (regulatory clarity, faster Fed balance-sheet expansion, possible liquidity trough around 2027) fit support recovery later, but di probability-weighted impact on BTC price still dey tilted bearish in di short run.