BTC Long-Term Holder Data Suggests Limited Selling Below $80K
Analyst Murphy says Bitcoin (BTC) may face less selling pressure below $80,000 than its holder distribution initially suggests. Glassnode research identifies long-term holder (LTH) supply, illiquid supply and network activity as major contributors to BTC volatility, together accounting for 42% of the factors reviewed.
An entity-adjusted breakdown of BTC’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows about 870,000 BTC held by LTHs around the current price area. Murphy notes that a similarly large cluster—about 850,000 BTC—was already present before 1 October 2025 and has changed little, despite a substantial market downturn. He argues this persistence suggests many of these holders may be relatively insensitive to further price declines.
Murphy also says overhanging supply above $110,000 has largely disappeared, while holders whose BTC was acquired between $80,000 and $100,000 may be less inclined to sell after prices approached $87,000. LTHs still have profitable coins and do sell at times, but their net holdings tend to fall and realized profits rise more rapidly during bull-market advances than during declines. The analysis therefore views LTH supply as a less immediate source of downside pressure, while not ruling out further BTC selling.
Neutral
The article presents an interpretation of on-chain data, not a confirmed change in market conditions or a new catalyst. Its main implication is mildly supportive: a large BTC holder cluster near the current price has remained broadly stable through a substantial downturn, which Murphy interprets as evidence that these long-term holders may not sell aggressively if BTC falls below $80,000. The disappearance of much of the supply above $110,000 could also mean less overhead selling from deeply underwater holders.
However, the evidence does not guarantee that BTC will find support. Long-term holders still have unrealized gains and can take profits, while short-term traders, macroeconomic developments, leverage liquidations and spot-market flows may create selling pressure independently of LTH behavior. Similar on-chain readings in past cycles have sometimes suggested holder conviction, but they have not prevented further declines when liquidity weakened or broader risk appetite deteriorated.
In the short term, traders may treat the analysis as a reason not to assume that a break below $80,000 would automatically trigger a wave of LTH selling. Price action, exchange flows, realized profits and derivatives positioning remain important confirmation signals. Over the longer term, persistent LTH holdings could help reduce available supply and support market stability, but the data alone is insufficient to establish a bullish trend. A neutral rating best reflects the article’s cautiously reassuring thesis and its uncertainty.