Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Return to Profit
Bitcoin long-term holders have returned to net unrealized profit after a period of “shallow stress”, according to on-chain data. The cohort holding BTC for six months to 10 years remains well above its realised price of about $48,000-$50,000, while Bitcoin trades near $84,000. This suggests the recent correction may represent a mid-cycle reset rather than a confirmed market top.
Long-term holder MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market value with its on-chain cost basis, compressed after Bitcoin fell from roughly $126,000 in October 2025. However, it did not reach the deep-loss levels typically associated with major cycle endings. Long-term holders sold about 260,000 BTC in August, but selling pressure moderated in September. Their realised profit ratio is now estimated at 72%-78%, far below the approximately 350% peak recorded in December 2024, indicating reduced market euphoria.
The article also highlights renewed institutional demand. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP spot ETFs recorded combined net inflows of about $65 million on 28 September. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $31.07 million, followed by Ethereum with $17.10 million, Solana with $12.70 million and XRP with $3.96 million. Bitcoin ETFs have received $57.58 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch, while Ethereum ETFs have attracted $13.96 billion. Solana and XRP ETFs have accumulated $1.62 billion and $1.79 billion, respectively.
For traders, the data points to improving market structure but does not remove downside risk. A fall towards the $48,000-$50,000 realised-price range could renew stress among long-term holders.
Bullish
The news is mildly bullish because Bitcoin long-term holders have moved back into unrealised profit, selling pressure has eased, and major crypto spot ETFs recorded simultaneous net inflows. These signals suggest that investor confidence and market liquidity are improving. The absence of extreme MVRV compression also reduces the immediate likelihood of a cycle-ending capitulation event.
In the short term, traders may interpret the data as support for buying dips, particularly if Bitcoin holds well above the $48,000-$50,000 realised-price range. ETF inflows could provide an additional demand channel and help stabilise price after corrections. However, the August sale of roughly 260,000 BTC shows that holders can still distribute aggressively, while Bitcoin remains well below its previous peak. ETF flows can also reverse quickly, so the signal is not a guarantee of continued upside.
Historically, long-term holders returning to profit after a controlled correction has more often supported a mid-cycle recovery than marked an immediate market top. In the longer term, rising realised prices and moderating sell-side pressure would be constructive if sustained. A decisive decline towards the realised-price range, renewed long-term-holder losses, or persistent ETF outflows would weaken the bullish interpretation and raise the risk of a broader correction.