Bitcoin metric don flip: supply wey dey loss don pass profit near bear-market support
Glassnode data dey show say one popular bitcoin metric dey flash again: di supply of BTC wey dey priced for unrealised loss don pass di supply wey dey in profit.
As BTC dey trade around important bear-market levels, more than half of bitcoin wey dey circulate dey underwater. For about one-hour resolution, "supply in loss" reach near 10.5 million BTC while "supply in profit" drop to about 9.8 million BTC. Total circulating supply na around 20 million BTC.
This crossover matter because e don usually happen around major bear-market bottoms. Still, how long bitcoin go remain for this loss-heavy regime dey vary across cycles, so e hard to predict how quick recovery fit start.
Price context: bitcoin also tag im 200-week moving average near $61,300 on Thursday — an indicator wey don act as major support for every previous bear market. The article mention psychological $60,000 area and flag the next bigger support zone around $54,000, near the realized price (the average on-chain acquisition cost).
If bitcoin drop below $60,000, traders fit expect volatility to rise as market test the realized-price level. On the other hand, the metric’s historical link to capitulation periods fit support a "bottoming" story, but timing risk still high.
Neutral
Di bitcoin metric wey dem report here—loss supply don pass profit supply—historically dey align with big bear-market bottoms, we fit stabilize traders wey dey look for capitulation signals. But di article still yarn say di move dey happen as price just dey reach (no yet hold for long-term support), and e dey warn about downside levels (US$60,000 then about US$54,000 realised price). That combination make short-term trade setup uncertain: e fit back one “bottoming attempt” story, but e no confirm say reversal go last.
For past, similar crossovers (2015, 2019, March 2020, 2022) different well well for duration, meaning even if bottom dey near, e fit take time and fit include further shakeouts. Short-term, traders fit tighten risk around di 200-week moving average zone and dey watch for confirmation by BTC holding above US$61,300 and especially above US$60,000. Long-term, if realised-price support around ~US$54,000 hold, market fit shift from heavy underwater positioning to stabilization and recovery. Overall, di signal align more with “cautious bottom-finding” than immediate bullish trend.