Bitcoin Approaches Long-Term Holder Pain Point as Realized Losses Rise
Bitcoin prices are weakening and edging toward the estimated long-term holder (LTH) cost basis of about $38,900, putting LTH unrealized profit — currently ~74% on average — under pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost and on-chain tracker Glassnode say the market has entered an "excess loss-realization" regime: Glassnode reports the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1. Historically, bear markets see price fall below the LTH cost basis and a final capitulation phase with realized losses near 20%, after which markets eventually recover. Analyst James Check noted nearly five consecutive red monthly candles, a 1-week realized volatility spike above 150% (levels typical of capitulation), and an extremely oversold weekly RSI. James Van Straten highlighted ~10 million BTC currently in loss (fourth-highest ever), circulating supply reaching 20 million BTC next week, and about 50% of supply in loss—conditions he says often precede a bear-market bottom. BTC saw a small, likely fragile rebound to ~$66,000, but sentiment remains bearish and technicals show lower highs with $60,000 as a key support. Key metrics to watch: LTH cost basis (~$38.9k), realized profit/loss ratio (90-day MA), realized volatility, weekly RSI, and supply in loss.
Bearish
The article compiles multiple on-chain and technical indicators that point toward sustained bearish conditions. Key signals include the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio falling below 1 (Glassnode), LTH average profit shrinking toward the estimated cost basis (~$38.9k) and historical precedent of price breaking below LTH cost-basis before a capitulation phase with ~20% realized losses (CryptoQuant). Elevated realized volatility (>150% one-week) and deeply oversold weekly RSI are classic capitulation markers; ~10 million BTC in loss and 50% of supply loss indicate broad unrealized loss across holders. Short-term price action shows a fragile rebound to ~$66k but with lower highs and $60k as support — technicals and sentiment remain negative. Together, these factors suggest increased selling pressure, reduced liquidity, and heightened downside risk in the short-to-medium term. Historically, similar clusters of on-chain stress metrics (high supply-in-loss, extreme volatility, and falling realized P/L ratios) preceded prolonged bear phases and final capitulations before later multi-month recoveries. For traders: expect higher volatility, potential further downside toward LTH cost levels, and opportunities for mean-reversion trades or buying into capitulation once clear bottom signals (sustained volume pick-up, shrinking supply-in-loss, or reversal in realized P/L MA) appear. Risk management and tighter stops are advised.