Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Pain Surpasses FTX Crash
On-chain data cited from Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are enduring their deepest “underwater” pain since major drawdowns. After the latest BTC price crash, the amount of loss-supply held by Bitcoin long-term holders jumped, reaching about 5.3 million BTC underwater—higher than the lows following the FTX crash and other prior bear markets, only exceeded during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020.
The article defines long-term holders (LTHs) as BTC investors holding for more than 155 days. As this cohort’s acquisition period mostly predates much of 2024’s higher prices, a Q4 2025 bearish shift and the February crash pushed more of their supply into unrealized losses. Analysts note that such extreme readings have often aligned with market lows and subsequent reversals, but it’s still unclear whether the current loss level will mark a bottom or extend further.
At the time of writing, BTC trades around $64,000, down over 13% on the week.
Bearish
The news is bearish because it signals worsening capitulation pressure among Bitcoin long-term holders. When loss-supply for LTHs rises to levels that historically cluster around major bottoms (e.g., FTX crash lows, 2020 COVID drawdown), it can precede a reversal—but the article also emphasizes that the “resolution process” is still in progress. That implies more selling/forced distribution risk remains before stabilization.
Short term: BTC’s current ~13% weekly drop and the surge to ~5.3M BTC underwater suggests supply is still being marked-to-market in losses, which can keep rallies fragile and raise the probability of further volatility if price fails to reclaim key levels.
Long term: If this episode truly mirrors past deep capitulation phases, it could eventually transition from continued drawdown to recovery once sellers exhaust. However, until loss-supply stops expanding and trend changes, traders should treat this as a sign that the market is still searching for a sustained bottom—typically negative for risk appetite.