Chart Shows Long-Term Holder Profits Suggest Next Bitcoin Bull Run Likely After Final Capitulation
A Feb. 16, 2025 chart by Joao Wedson (Alphractal) uses the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL) metric to assess when Bitcoin’s next major bull run may begin. The indicator measures average unrealized gains/losses for long-term holders — wallets historically associated with lower sell-side activity. The current LTH NUPL reading is 0.36, meaning long-term holders are, on average, in profit. Wedson’s chart color-codes profit phases (green) and loss phases (red). Historically, major Bitcoin bull cycles began after the LTH NUPL moved below zero — periods of red that coincide with late-stage capitulation, seller exhaustion, and coin transfer to stronger holders. Wedson argues that the deepest market reset (negative LTH NUPL) typically precedes major bull runs; since the metric remains positive, a final capitulation has likely not occurred and the definitive signal for the next bull market is still pending. For traders, the key takeaway is to watch LTH NUPL trends: a sustained shift below zero has historically marked cycle bottoms and optimal reallocation opportunities, while current positive readings suggest bull-phase upside may remain muted until a deeper reset happens. Keywords: Bitcoin, LTH NUPL, long-term holders, capitulation, bull run.
Neutral
The report is analytical rather than event-driven: it highlights a historical indicator (Long-Term Holder NUPL) showing long-term holders are currently in profit (0.36). Historically, major Bitcoin bull runs have followed periods when this metric turned negative — signaling deep capitulation and coin transfer to stronger hands. Because the metric remains positive, the article implies that the final capitulation which traditionally precedes a sustained bull market has not occurred. Short-term impact: neutral to mildly bearish for aggressive long entries because the absence of a capitulation signal reduces the historical probability of an immediate, large-scale bull breakout. Traders might prefer range strategies, protection or wait for clearer NUPL deterioration before initiating large long positions. Long-term impact: historically bullish once/if LTH NUPL moves negative and then recovers — such a cycle bottom has preceded major bull runs, creating attractive reallocation opportunities. Parallels: 2015–2016 and 2018–2019 cycles showed deep negative NUPL phases before multi-month bull markets. Practical trader actions: monitor LTH NUPL and on-chain flows, watch for coin accumulation by strong hands, use layered entries, set stop-losses for shorter horizons, and consider buying into confirmed post-capitulation recovery rather than chasing current strength.