Falling Bitcoin LTH Holdings Could Fuel $120K Breakout
Bitcoin rebounded to $122,312 before retreating to $118,631, marking a 2.43% daily drop but retaining weekly and monthly gains of 3.6% and 0.63%. Key metrics from Sentora and Checkonchain show that Bitcoin LTH holdings have fallen to cycle lows, with a –21.5K BTC net change over three months. This sustained net outflow contrasts with past bull cycles, where long-term holders sold more aggressively.
Despite declining balances, the Long-Term Holder sell-side risk ratio hit a 30-day low of 0.0010033, well below liquidity risk thresholds. Realised profit by LTHs has fallen from 13.8K BTC to 5.6K BTC in three weeks, indicating muted profit taking. This combination of net outflows and low sell-side pressure could support upward price momentum without heavy downside risks.
If profit taking increases, BTC might retrace to support near $116K. Conversely, a halt in LTH selling and recovery in balances could propel Bitcoin back to the $120,234 breakout level. Traders should watch Bitcoin LTH holdings and sell-side risk ratio as key indicators for the next leg of the rally.
Bullish
The slowdown in net outflows by long-term holders, coupled with a record-low sell-side risk ratio and declining realised profits, mirrors past cycles where muted profit taking preceded sustained rallies. Historically, when LTHs reduce selling urgency even as holdings hit cycle lows, it indicates confidence in further upside. In the short term, low sell pressure supports price stability around current levels. Over the longer term, if Bitcoin LTH holdings stabilize or recover, it sets the stage for a $120K breakout. Conversely, a resurgence in profit taking could trigger a retracement to the $116K support. Overall, the balance of metrics favors continued bullish momentum.