Bitcoin LTH supply rises 3M BTC, but LTH SOPR stays <1.0
Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) cohort is growing, but it is not yet behaving “profitably.” On-chain data from Axel Adler Jr. shows LTH Realized Supply increasing from 5.26M BTC in January 2026 to 8.32M BTC as of April 16 (+3.06M BTC in ~3 months). Because this metric tracks BTC aged 155+ days, some of the rise may reflect coins maturing into the LTH bucket rather than fresh accumulation.
The key trader signal is LTH SOPR (7-day simple moving average). It has stayed below 1.0 for five straight days, at 0.979 since Apr 12. Values under 1.0 typically mean long-term holders are spending at a loss. The pattern has recurred since February, including a deeper dip near 0.798 in late March–early April, a brief rebound above 1.0 (Apr 5–11), and now a renewed slide.
Traders are watching two confirmation points: (1) whether Bitcoin LTH SOPR stabilizes above the March lows, and (2) whether LTH Realized Supply reverses downward. A quick SOPR rebound back above 1.0 alongside continued LTH Realized Supply growth would suggest only local stress. But if SOPR remains sub-1.0 while LTH Realized Supply starts falling, it could indicate broader old-coin distribution and a more bearish regime.
Separately, Bitcoin’s BCMI (Combined Market Index) has dropped into a 0.2–0.3 undervaluation zone (last seen in early 2023). The article frames this as potential “value-accumulation,” but the 90-day moving average still trends down, implying downside pressure may persist.
Keywords: Bitcoin, LTH Realized Supply, LTH SOPR, BCMI undervaluation.
Neutral
The news is mixed for price. On one hand, LTH Realized Supply is rising by ~3.06M BTC, which can be consistent with accumulation-by-holding (coins are aging into the LTH cohort). On the other hand, LTH SOPR is staying below 1.0 (0.979 for five straight days), signalling that these long-term holders are realizing losses—an input traders often associate with ongoing distribution risk.
The BCMI falling into a 0.2–0.3 undervaluation band adds a counterweight: it historically aligns with “value-accumulation,” but the still-declining 90-day moving average suggests sell pressure may persist. Together, this points to likely volatility and a wait-and-confirm setup rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend.
Short-term, traders may fade rallies or tighten risk while LTH SOPR remains sub-1.0. Long-term, if SOPR stabilizes and eventually reclaims 1.0 without a reversal in Realized Supply, it would support the idea of temporary stress. If instead SOPR stays below 1.0 while Realized Supply reverses downward, that would raise bearish conviction.