Long-term Bitcoin Holders Sell in Three Waves; Key Liquidity at $85.2K and $91K
Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) supply has fallen to about 14.34M BTC, the lowest since May, reflecting aggressive distribution by holders with coins held 155+ days. Glassnode and on-chain analysts identify three distinct LTH sell waves since late 2023: following U.S. spot ETF launches, during the run toward $100,000, and a third wave that continued while BTC traded above $100,000. These repeated distributions helped drive an approximate 40% correction from October’s all-time highs and represent sustained sell-side pressure from historically patient holders. On-chain commentators highlight two critical liquidity clusters around $85,200 (downside) and $91,000 (upside continuation) that traders should monitor. The cycle’s multiple sell waves contrast with prior single blow-off distributions (2013, 2017, 2021), increasing the probability of higher volatility and event-driven moves (for example, central bank decisions). For traders, the immediate implications are heightened supply-side pressure, elevated short-term volatility, and the need to watch LTH flows, spot liquidity zones (~$85.2K and $91K), and order-book absorption when planning entries, stop placement and sizing.
Bearish
Repeated distribution by long-term holders reduces available sell-side liquidity from historically patient cohorts, contributing to an approximate 40% drawdown from the October peak. The decline in LTH supply to an eight-month low signals continued supply pressure rather than accumulation, increasing the probability of further downside or choppy trading until that supply is absorbed. Identified liquidity clusters at $85.2K (downside) and $91K (upside continuation) serve as focal points where stops and large orders may be swept, producing sharp short-term moves. Compared with prior cycles that featured a single blow-off distribution, multiple sell waves spread supply over time, prolonging volatility and limiting sustainable bullish momentum. For traders this implies elevated short-term risk, the need for tighter risk management, and cautious entries — while longer-term holders and macro developments will determine whether distribution exhausts and a lasting bottom forms.