Bitcoin Market Outlook: Cowen’s Scenarios and Q4 Forecast

Published: 2025-09-01 20:16:04 |

IntoTheCryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen outlined three potential paths for Bitcoin market dynamics centered on its position relative to the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). If Bitcoin rebounds from $109,283 and climbs above the 20-week SMA, Cowen argues it could reclaim market leadership, driving capital away from altcoins. A failure to hold this level could push Bitcoin down to its 50-week SMA, triggering sharper altcoin devaluation. Alternatively, a sideways move around the 20-week SMA may still erode altcoin valuations while boosting Bitcoin’s market share. Analyst Axel Bitblaze forecasts a weak September based on historical patterns but predicts a robust Q4 surge. He cites spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbing supply, anticipated interest rate cuts, and rising global liquidity as catalysts for renewed volatility and upside later in the quarter. Historically, the fourth quarter has delivered strong performance for Bitcoin, suggesting traders should prepare for heightened market activity. Both analyses underscore the need to monitor moving averages, macro liquidity factors, and ETF flows when assessing Bitcoin market dynamics and altcoin risk.

Bullish

This analysis leans bullish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Cowen’s scenarios highlight Bitcoin’s potential to reclaim dominance if it sustains key moving averages, while Bitblaze’s Q4 forecast draws on historical fourth-quarter strength, ETF inflows, expected interest rate cuts, and rising liquidity. Similar patterns emerged in past cycles: Q4 2020 saw Bitcoin break out post-halving and ETF approval anticipation, and Q4 2021 delivered another rally despite earlier altcoin corrections. In the short term, traders should brace for September volatility as moving averages and macro data unfold. Over the long term, ETF-driven demand and supportive monetary policy could fuel a sustained rally, increasing Bitcoin’s market share and pressuring altcoins. Overall, the factors point toward a bullish outlook for the remainder of the year.