Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Supply Rotation Hints at Next Bull Run
Bitcoin is experiencing a mid-cycle supply rotation that could mark the beginning of its next bull run. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant show long-term holder (LTH) supply falling to a monthly low of 14.54 million BTC while short-term holder (STH) supply rises 7.96% to 2.4 million BTC. The 30-day SMA of new addresses has crossed above the 365-day SMA, signaling accelerated on-chain adoption. Dormant coins reactivated soared from 59 K BTC in 2023 to 255 K BTC in 2024 and 214 K BTC so far in 2025, with average transaction sizes jumping from 162 to 1,011 BTC. These mid-cycle reset signals suggest robust demand as dormant capital wakes up and fresh hands gain market share, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Bullish
This mid-cycle supply rotation mirrors past patterns where reactivation of dormant BTC and rising short-term holder stakes preceded major price surges. The 30-day SMA crossing above the 365-day SMA indicates increased on-chain adoption and fresh entry from retail and institutional traders. Significant jumps in reactivated supply and average transaction size point to high-conviction positions, not mere profit-taking. In the short term, renewed demand may drive volatility as fresh capital rotates, but overall momentum favors upward moves. Over the long term, structural shifts in supply dynamics—coupled with sustained on-chain growth—suggest Bitcoin is setting up for a robust bull phase rather than late-cycle exuberance.