VanEck: 4% Bitcoin hashrate drop and miner capitulation may signal market bottom
VanEck analysts report a roughly 4% decline in Bitcoin network hashrate over the past 30 days — the largest monthly fall since April 2024 — and flag this as a potential contrarian bullish signal tied to miner capitulation. Historical analysis by Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush shows that 30-day hashrate declines preceded positive 90-day BTC returns ~65% of the time (versus 54% after hashrate rises). Periods of negative 90-day hashrate growth preceded positive six‑month returns ~77% of the time with average gains near 72%, outperforming periods of hashrate growth. Recent drivers of the drop include shutdowns in China (about 1.3 GW in Xinjiang) and reports of mass machine losses (~400,000 units). VanEck also highlights miner margin stress: breakeven electricity cost for an S19 XP fell roughly 36% between Dec 2024 and mid‑December to about $0.077/kWh, and AI-related power shifts could remove further hashrate. On-chain context: BTC has fallen from its October all‑time high (~$88,400 in the summaries) by roughly 30% in earlier reporting; in the later update BTC fell ~9% over 30 days and touched ~$80,700 on Nov 22. Volatility rose (30‑day vol >45%), 30‑day RSI dipped (~32), daily fees fell 14%, active addresses slipped, and perpetual futures basis compressed. Buy‑side flows: large data aggregators increased accumulations by ~42k BTC (+4% m/m) to about 1.09M BTC, the largest monthly DAT buy since mid‑2025. VanEck frames miner capitulation as a possible near‑term bottom indicator but warns that if markets interpret miner weakness as systemic, it could trigger deeper selling. Trader takeaways: monitor hashrate trends, miner news (China inspections, outages), miner breakevens, volatility, perpetual basis, and large‑entity accumulation for signals of mean reversion or extended bearish stress.
Bullish
The net effect is mildly bullish for BTC price prospects over the medium term. VanEck’s historical analysis ties hashrate declines — often reflecting miner capitulation or forced shutdowns — to stronger 90‑ to 180‑day forward returns, suggesting that reduced selling pressure from miners can create a setup for mean reversion. Current supporting signals include large‑entity accumulation (DAT buys), compressed perpetual basis and elevated volatility that often precede rebounds. Offsetting risks: falling hashrate also signals miner stress and worsening breakevens, which can spark chains of forced sales if perceived as systemic. Short term, expect price volatility and downside risk if new negative mining developments emerge; medium term (3–6 months), historical tendencies and continued accumulation by large buyers point to a higher probability of recovery. Traders should monitor hashrate direction, miner newsflow, breakeven power costs, perpetual futures basis, on‑chain accumulation and volatility to time entries or hedge positions.