Bitcoin miners sell less as profitability collapses—watch the on-chain capitulation signal
Bitcoin miners are bleeding as mining profitability collapses, while on-chain data shows a sharp decline in miner selling pressure. An XWIN Research Japan report cited in the piece suggests miners—often the most consistent source of new BTC supply—have largely stopped selling, which can align with late-stage capitulation. Historically, that condition can precede bottom formation, but the article warns demand remains weak, so supply improvement alone may not be sufficient.
The stress shows up in economics rather than hashrate: hash rate is still rising even as hash price approaches historic lows. The average cost of production is cited around $80,000, implying a portion of the network mines at a direct loss per block. The likely takeaway is consolidation: weaker miners are forced out, while surviving operators benefit from cheaper energy, capital access, or diversified revenue streams (including AI/high-performance computing). Structurally, the mining industry may sell less and respond differently during recoveries.
Price action is still bearish. BTC is around $67,688 (down ~1.65% on the day). The attempt to push above $71,000 was fully retraced. Technicals highlight declining moving averages and a confirmed “death cross” (50-day below 100-day). Near-term levels referenced are ~$67,500 as an immediate floor, then $63,000 and the February low near $59,000. Net: Bitcoin miners are showing a constructive supply-side shift on-chain, but BTC’s chart has not confirmed a bottom yet.
Neutral
该消息的核心是“双信号”：比特币矿工在链上出现明显降抛售（可能暗示末期投降的供应侧拐点），但价格的确认仍缺失，需求端依旧疲弱。
与以往周期的对照：在多次下跌尾声，矿工若因盈利不足而减少卖出，常伴随“供给收缩—情绪去杠杆—随后才轮到需求回补”。这类阶段往往先让下跌速度放缓，再逐步形成底部。
短期（交易日~数周）：由于文章中的技术面仍显示均线下行、死亡交叉与支撑位需要被验证，交易者可能更倾向于把“矿工链上信号”当作抄底条件之一，而不是立即做多的充分理由。BTC 若跌破文中提到的 67,500、63,000 或 59,000，供给端改善也可能无法立刻阻止情绪继续恶化。
中长期（数月）：若“矿业并表整合”持续（更少抛售、更强的生存性），并且需求随后回升，供给结构变化会让反弹更稳、更不容易快速回到旧低位。因此总体更接近中性：对下行有一定缓冲，但趋势确认仍取决于买盘回流与关键技术位守住。