Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Plunges 11.6% — Biggest Drop Since China Ban

Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped 11.6% to about 125.86T after the adjustment activated at block 935,429, the largest single-period decline since China’s 2021 mining crackdown and the tenth-largest negative adjustment on record. The fall coincides with an 11% aggregate BTC price decline over the past week and a deeper intraweek sell-off that pushed prices down as much as 28% earlier in February before a partial rebound to roughly $69,000. Network-wide average block times exceeded the 10‑minute target (over 11 minutes) before the adjustment. Analysts and company disclosures (including MARA’s Q3 2025 report) indicate average miner breakevens near $67,704, implying many miners are operating at a loss and may increase selling or curtail operations. Operational disruptions — notably a major US winter storm that temporarily forced Foundry USA to curtail capacity and briefly lose about 60% of its hashing power — and miners reallocating capacity to AI and HPC workloads contributed to a multi-month low in total hashrate. CoinWarz projects the next difficulty adjustment (around Feb 23) could lower difficulty by another ~10.4% toward ~112.7T if current conditions persist. Market implications for traders: near-term downside pressure is likely from miner capitulation and forced selling, raising volatility; lower difficulty will ease mining costs and can attract hashpower back, which may stabilise block production and miner margins over time. Key metrics to monitor: difficulty (125.86T), projected next difficulty (~112.7T), average block time (>11 minutes pre-adjustment), network hashrate and major pools’ shares (e.g., Foundry USA ~354 EH/s ~29–30% at recovery), and miner breakeven levels (~$67.7k).