Bitcoin mining wahala drop 11.6% — Biggest fall since China ban
Bitcoin mining difficulty don drop 11.6% to about 125.86T after the adjustment wey activate for block 935,429 — na the biggest single-period fall since China crackdown for 2021 and na di tenth biggest negative adjustment for record. Di fall dey happen as BTC price don drop about 11% overall this past week and dem still get deeper intraweek sell-off wey push price down as much as 28% earlier for February before e bounce back small to about $69,000. Network average block times pass di 10-minute target (over 11 minutes) before di adjustment. Analysts and company disclosures (including MARA’s Q3 2025 report) show say average miner breakevens near $67,704, meaning many miners dey operate for loss and fit increase selling or cut operations. Operational disruptions — especially one big US winter storm wey force Foundry USA to cut capacity small and for a short time dem lose about 60% of hiz hashing power — and miners wey dey move capacity to AI and HPC workloads contribute to multi-month low for total hashrate. CoinWarz project say di next difficulty adjustment (around Feb 23) fit lower difficulty another ~10.4% toward ~112.7T if conditions remain so. Market implications for traders: short-term downside pressure fit come from miner capitulation and forced selling, wey go raise volatility; lower difficulty go reduce mining costs and fit attract hashpower back, wey fit stabilize block production and miner margins with time. Key metrics to watch: difficulty (125.86T), projected next difficulty (~112.7T), average block time (>11 minutes pre-adjustment), network hashrate and major pools’ shares (e.g., Foundry USA ~354 EH/s ~29–30% at recovery), and miner breakeven levels (~$67.7k).
Bearish
Di whole e go likely bearish for BTC price for short term. Big, sudden drop for difficulty dey show say total hashrate don fall recently and block production don slow down, often because miners dey cut rigs or dem force sell equipment or BTC to cover costs. Company disclosures and breakeven estimates show plenty miners dey operate near or below breakeven (~$67.7k), which increase chance say miners go capitulate and more selling pressure go follow. Operational shocks (e.g. winter storm) and moving rigs to non‑BTC workloads deepen near‑term downside risk. Lower difficulty go reduce mining costs and fit attract hashpower back, which for history don stabilize block times and miner margins — neutral to supportive factor in medium term. So immediate price impact negative (bearish) because selling and volatility, while longer‑term effect depend on BTC price recovery, energy costs, and hashpower return.