Bitcoin mining difficulty eases to 146.4T; next adjustment seen rising to 148.2T
The Bitcoin network completed its first mining difficulty adjustment of 2026 on Jan 8, easing to 146.4 trillion after average block times measured about 9.88 minutes (slightly faster than the 10-minute target). CoinWarz projects the next adjustment on Jan 22, 2026 (04:08:12 UTC) will likely increase difficulty to roughly 148.2T. Analysts link ongoing mining margin pressure to the April 2024 halving, a fall in miner hash price (daily revenue per unit of hashrate) — which fell as low as ~$35/PH/s/day in November 2025 and recently near $40/PH/s/day — and broader crypto price declines. Higher 2025 difficulty peaks (around 155.9T in November) tightened competition and squeezed miner profitability, prompting some operators to pause rigs amid cost and supply-chain headwinds, including U.S. tariff exposure. Key trader takeaways: monitor miner hash-price metrics, difficulty adjustments and block times as leading indicators of miner selling pressure; a falling or stabilising difficulty can reduce immediate sell-side risk, while rising difficulty combined with low hash price can increase bearish pressure on BTC. Keywords: Bitcoin, mining difficulty, hash price, miner profitability, BTC price.
Bearish
The combined reporting points to constrained miner profitability and ongoing difficulty volatility — factors that historically exert sell-side pressure on BTC. Short term: the drop in difficulty to 146.4T slightly eases immediate selling risk, but the forecasted rise to ~148.2T and the legacy November peak (~155.9T) indicate that network difficulty remains elevated relative to miner revenue levels. Miner hash price falling to ~$35–40/PH/s/day suggests many operators face marginal or negative margins; such conditions often trigger forced or preventative asset sales (ASIC liquidation or BTC sales to cover costs), increasing downward pressure on price. Medium to long term: if miner hash price recovers (via BTC price gains or lower operational costs) and difficulty stabilises, selling pressure should subside and the effect could neutralize. Conversely, sustained high difficulty alongside low hash price will likely prolong bearish pressure. For traders, this maps to increased downside risk until clearer improvements in miner economics or a sustained BTC price rally occur.