Bitcoin mining difficulty to rise in December as hashprice nears historic lows
Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to tick up at the December 11 adjustment (around block ~927,360–927,369), reversing a recent fall from ~15.22 million TH to ~14.93 million TH that produced average block times near 9.97 minutes. Hashprice — miner revenue measured per PH/s per day — sits around $38.3/PH/s, recovering slightly from November troughs below $35 but still below a common miner breakeven of about $40/PH/s. Persistent low hashprice coupled with higher energy costs and regulatory pressures is squeezing miner margins and maintaining selling pressure on BTC. Newer developments cite U.S. DHS scrutiny of Bitmain for potential remote-access/security concerns; given Bitmain’s dominant share of ASIC supply (≈80% by Cambridge estimates), U.S. restrictions or sanctions could tighten hardware availability and raise long-term mining costs. Miners continue cost cutting and diversification (including AI-compute deals) to offset reduced block rewards post‑halving. For traders: monitor difficulty and hashprice trends as short-term gauges of miner selling pressure and network health; hardware-supply or regulatory shocks could increase miner capex and secondary-market selling, while persistent low margins raise capitulation risk.
Bearish
The combined reporting points to a near-term bearish bias for BTC price. Key drivers: (1) Hashprice remains below typical miner breakeven (~$40/PH/s), keeping miner margins thin and increasing the likelihood of BTC selling to cover costs. Historically, sustained low hashprice correlates with increased miner outflows into spot markets. (2) Difficulty rising in December will worsen short-term miner revenue per hash until prices or fees adjust, amplifying pressure on lower-margin operations. (3) Regulatory risk — notably U.S. DHS scrutiny of Bitmain — introduces potential supply-side shocks to ASIC availability and future capex, which could increase mining costs and incentivize asset sales. Offsetting factors are miners’ defensive actions (cost cuts, diversification into AI compute) and the network’s steady block times, which show robust hash rate so far. Overall, the near-term impact is negative for BTC price due to increased selling pressure and higher operational uncertainty; longer-term effects depend on whether BTC price or miner efficiencies recover enough to restore margins.