Bitcoin mining difficulty likely to rise in December as hashprice nears record lows
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is forecast to increase at the next adjustment (around Dec. 11, block ~927,360), rising slightly from about 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, according to CoinWarz. This follows a recent drop from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion that produced an average block time just under 10 minutes. Miner revenue pressure remains acute: hashprice — expected miner earnings per PH/s per day — is hovering near record lows (~$38.3 per PH/s/day) and below the rough $40 break-even threshold. Hashprice briefly hit a record low below $35 on Nov. 21. Ongoing industry headwinds include rising energy costs, regulatory restrictions and potential supply disruptions tied to geopolitical scrutiny of major ASIC maker Bitmain by U.S. authorities. Bitmain supplies roughly 80% of ASICs; U.S. probes or restrictions could tighten hardware availability and raise costs. For traders, a rising difficulty amid low hashprice suggests compression of miner margins, potential sell pressure from miners (especially smaller or older-gear operations), and heightened sensitivity of BTC market dynamics to energy/regulatory news. Key data points: next adjustment date (~Dec 11), projected difficulty 149.80T (from 149.30T), current hashprice ~$38.3/PH/s/day, break-even ~ $40/PH/s/day, record low hashprice < $35 on Nov 21, Bitmain ~80% market share.
Bearish
Raising mining difficulty while hashprice remains below the break-even level tightens miner margins. Historically, periods when miner revenue collapses or faces sustained pressure (for example, after previous hashprice plunges or during high energy-cost episodes) have led smaller or older-gear miners to power down or liquidate holdings, increasing sell pressure on BTC. The current combination — projected difficulty increase (Dec. 11) and hashprice near record lows (~$38.3/PH/s/day, below ~$40 break-even) — favors defensive actions by miners. Added downside risks come from potential hardware supply disruptions if U.S. regulatory action restricts Bitmain, which could increase costs and shorten replacement cycles. Short-term impact: heightened volatility and likely bearish pressure as miner sell-offs and margin calls occur. Long-term impact: if prices or mining rewards recover, the network will self-correct via future difficulty adjustments and some miners will re-enter; however prolonged low hashprice could result in consolidation of mining capacity and structural cost increases. Overall, net effect is negative for near-term BTC price action, but neutral-to-stabilizing in the longer run if market or reward conditions improve.