Bitcoin bottom bets as mining electric cost falls
Bitcoin traders are watching mining economics after analyst Ted Pillows said the estimated “electric cost” to mine BTC has fallen below $50,000 and could move toward $45,000. He argues Bitcoin could drop under $50,000 and bottom around $46,000–$48,000, aligning with August 2024 lows.
Market pricing on Kalshi reportedly mirrors this bearish floor view: traders are currently forecasting a Bitcoin low near $48,000.
However, not all signals point down. Chart analyst Ali Martinez flagged a “right-angled descending broadening wedge” on Bitcoin’s 1-hour chart, which he reads as a potential bullish reversal setup. His short-term target is around $75,700 if the breakout holds.
Separately, Merlijn The Trader said BTC has reached the “DCA zone” on the Rainbow Chart for the fourth time in its history. He claims prior touches of this zone preceded major accumulation phases and argues the chart “has never been wrong.”
Geopolitics is also affecting price action. Bitcoin slipped below $68,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power infrastructure, then briefly pushed above $71,000 when the situation de-escalated. Renewed back-and-forth later kept Bitcoin near/under $70,000, with the coin recently gaining about 8.5% over 30 days.
Near-term, some traders call the $65,636–$70,685 band a “no-trade zone” with both buyers and sellers active, while the mining-cost data and prediction markets still lean toward downside. Bitcoin may remain range-bound until a clear break occurs.
Neutral
This news is mixed for traders. On the bearish side, mining economics via Ted Pillows’ “electric cost” framework suggests a lower BTC price floor near $46k–$48k, and Kalshi positioning appears to price in a similar low. That can increase downside hedging and keep rallies capped if BTC fails to reclaim $50k quickly.
On the bullish side, two technical/accumulation narratives compete with the downside thesis: (1) Ali Martinez’s identified wedge pattern and target near $75,700, and (2) Merlijn The Trader’s Rainbow Chart “DCA zone” claim that prior touches often preceded accumulation and rallies.
Similar historical setups often create “decision zones” where price chops until one side wins. Given the article also references a contested band ($65,636–$70,685) with heavy turnover, the most likely near-term outcome is range-bound trading with volatility that spikes only after a clean break above resistance or below the mining-cost-implied floor.
Longer term, if electricity-cost declines translate into structurally lower miner stress and the chart-based accumulation thesis remains valid, the market could form a base even without immediate upside. But if geopolitical headline risk continues to push BTC below key supports, the bearish floor could become the dominant narrative.