Bitcoin mining hash price crushes miners’ margins; costs rise
CoinShares warns that Bitcoin mining is under severe fiscal stress as the hash price slips to about $28–30/PH/day. At that level, roughly 15%–20% of the global mining fleet is in the red, increasing pressure for miner capitulation.
The latest report links the squeeze to a post-halving mismatch: in Q4 2025, BTC fell nearly 31% (from ~$126,000 to ~$86,000) while network hash rate stayed near record highs. This combination compresses hash price and pushes cash flows negative.
CoinShares estimates the weighted average production cost for publicly listed miners rose to about $79,995 per BTC in Q4 2025. The drivers include higher power expenses, network difficulty increases, and added depreciation tied to AI/HPC infrastructure (as miners pivot beyond pure-play BTC mining).
Mining difficulty saw three consecutive negative adjustments in late 2025, a rare event since July 2022, which CoinShares views as a capitulation signal. Winter power costs and ERCOT curtailments further reduce profitable running hours for legacy operators.
With margins squeezed, miners have been reducing BTC treasury holdings. The report cites BTC liquidations by Core Scientific, Bitdeer (reserves cut to zero in February), and Riot (noted as selling in December). Despite this, hash rate has been relatively resilient—peaking near 1,160 EH/s in Oct 2025 and stabilizing around ~1,020 EH/s by early March 2026 after a ~10% dip.
For traders, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin mining profitability hinges on BTC price and the hash price. CoinShares suggests around $30/PH/day keeps only the most efficient operators cash-positive; prolonged weakness could trigger more deleveraging and spot BTC selling, shaping near-term market sentiment for BTC.
Bearish
CoinShares highlights that Bitcoin mining hash price is too low to cover costs for a meaningful share of capacity (15%–20% in losses) and that mining difficulty needed multiple consecutive negative adjustments—signals that weaker miners may be forced to deleverage. That combination increases the odds of further spot BTC selling by public miners, which is typically negative for BTC near-term sentiment.
In the short term, traders should watch for continued BTC treasury sales and additional capitulation triggers if hash price stays around $28–30/PH/day. In the long term, the report also implies a conditional recovery path: profitability could improve if BTC rebounds materially and hash price rises (CoinShares frames levels tied to BTC reclaiming higher prices). However, with current economics already tight and power/curtailment pressures present, the near-to-medium term risk skews bearish for BTC.