Bitcoin mining hash price don crush miners dem margins; costs dey rise
CoinShares dey warn say Bitcoin mining dey under serious financial stress as hash price don fall to about $28–30/PH/day. For that level, roughly 15%–20% of global mining fleet dey loss, wey dey put pressure make some miners give up.
Di latest report link di squeeze to wetin happen after halving: for Q4 2025, BTC drop almost 31% (from ~ $126,000 to ~ $86,000) while network hash rate remain near record highs. Dis mix compress hash price and push cash flows negative.
CoinShares estimate say weighted average production cost for publicly listed miners rise to about $79,995 per BTC in Q4 2025. Things wey cause am include higher power costs, network difficulty increases, and extra depreciation for AI/HPC infrastructure (cos miners dey pivot beyond pure BTC mining).
Mining difficulty get three negative adjustments in a row late 2025, rare since July 2022, which CoinShares see as capitulation signal. Winter power costs and ERCOT curtailments also reduce profitable running hours for legacy operators.
As margins tight, miners don dey cut down BTC treasury holdings. Report mention BTC liquidations by Core Scientific, Bitdeer (reserves cut to zero for February), and Riot (noted say dem sell for December). Even so, hash rate still resilient—peaked near 1,160 EH/s in Oct 2025 and steady around ~1,020 EH/s by early March 2026 after about ~10% dip.
For traders, main takeaway na say Bitcoin mining profitability depend on BTC price and hash price. CoinShares talk say around $30/PH/day keep only the most efficient operators cash-positive; if weakness last long e fit trigger more deleveraging and spot BTC selling, wey go shape near-term market sentiment for BTC.
Bearish
CoinShares tok say Bitcoin mining hash price too low make e no cover costs for meaningful part of capacity (15%–20% dey loss) and say mining difficulty need plenty negative adjustments one after another — signs say weaker miners fit force to deleverage. Dat combo dey increase chance say public miners go sell more spot BTC, and dat usually bad for BTC short-term sentiment.
Short term, traders suppose dey watch if BTC treasury sales go continue and any more capitulation triggers if hash price dey around $28–30/PH/day. Long term, the report still show conditional recovery path: profitability fit improve if BTC rebound well and hash price rise (CoinShares tie levels to BTC taking back higher prices). But as economics tight now and power/curtailment pressures dey, near-to-medium term risk lean bearish for BTC.