Bitcoin Mining Profit Shock — Hashrate Tops 1 ZH/s; Difficulty Set to Drop ~14%
Bitcoin mining has entered a severe profitability squeeze as network hashrate surpasses 1 ZH/s while miner revenue and hashprice fall to multi-year lows. Recent data (GoMining and Miner Weekly estimates) show seven-day average hashrate above 1 ZH/s driven by large-scale deployments and hardware upgrades, pushing hashprice to roughly $35–$38 per PH/day. Median all-in costs for large public miners are estimated near $44/PH/day, producing negative margins for many operators. Average block time rose above normal (around 19.3 minutes, briefly approaching 20 minutes), prompting an expected difficulty reduction of roughly 14% at the next adjustment (around Feb 8, 2026) — the largest drop since China’s mining ban. That difficulty relief could temporarily ease selling pressure by restoring closer-to-10-minute block times and improving margins for miners who remain online. However, new rigs now have ROI windows measured in years (often >1,000 days), and with the next halving ~850 days away hardware bought today may not break even before rewards are halved. At typical electricity costs around $0.08/kWh, common S21-class miners need BTC prices near $69k–$74k to breakeven. The article outlines three possible paths: (1) a relief rebound after the ~14–18% difficulty drop that restores margins; (2) continued squeeze and miner capitulation if BTC price, energy costs, or financing stress persists; (3) structural shift toward more flexible, energy-aware operations (including integration with non-mining workloads such as AI). For traders: expect short-term reduction in miner selling pressure after difficulty falls, but elevated downside tail risk if BTC price drops below widespread miner shutdown thresholds — likely driving consolidation, forced shutdowns and distressed asset sales. Key SEO keywords: Bitcoin, mining difficulty, hashrate (1 ZH/s), hashprice, miner breakeven, Zetahash era.
Bearish
The combined reporting points to a net-negative price pressure for BTC in both the near and medium term. Rising hashrate and record-low hashprice mean many miners operate at negative margins; that increases the probability of miner capitulation (powering down, selling rigs, liquidating reserves) if BTC stays below breakeven levels. Although an expected ~14% difficulty drop will provide partial, temporary relief by lowering block times and improving margins for survivors, it does not change the fundamental mismatch between capital costs and expected returns — new hardware ROI windows exceed the time to the next halving, reducing incentive to expand. For traders, immediate implications include reduced short-term selling pressure once difficulty falls (potentially stabilizing price), but a sustained BTC price decline would trigger renewed, possibly larger miner selling and distressed-asset flows, amplifying downside. Over the long term the market may consolidate around low-cost operators, reducing supply-side risk, but near-term volatility and bearish bias remain dominant until hashprice recovers or BTC reaches significantly higher levels. Therefore, the overall price impact is bearish.