Bitcoin monthly MACD turns bearish after BOJ yield shock, dollar strength and ETF outflows
Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram flipped negative following a steep November drop, marking a bearish technical shift that historically preceded extended corrections. The sell-off was amplified by a macro shock — Japan’s 2‑year yield spike raised odds of Bank of Japan policy tightening — combined with a stronger US dollar and higher funding costs during a thin‑liquidity session. This triggered large exchange liquidations (over $564m of long positions in one session), cascading stop‑losses and a liquidity‑driven move downward. Additional pressure came from spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and rising US Treasury yields. Key technical supports: the trendline of 2023–2024 higher lows near ~$84.5k, then the April low around ~$74.5k and the 2021 high near ~$70k; a break of these levels would expose deeper downside. Ethereum also shows weakening structure (50‑day SMA crossing below 200‑day SMA — a “death cross”), suggesting risk of broader crypto weakness if Bitcoin fails key support. Analysts note extreme bearish positioning, which raises the potential for a large short squeeze should liquidity conditions reverse, but near‑term risks point to heightened downside volatility. Traders should watch: monthly MACD status, liquidity clusters above price (squeeze potential), ETF flows, Treasury yields, and the named support levels for stop‑loss and entry planning.
Bearish
The combination of a negative monthly MACD, a sharp liquidity-driven sell-off with large long liquidations, and adverse macro factors (Japan yield spike, stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields) points to increased downside risk for Bitcoin. Technical supports at ~84.5k, ~74.5k and ~70k are the immediate levels to monitor; failure of the trendline support would likely accelerate a deeper correction. ETF outflows and tighter funding conditions add sustained selling pressure, increasing the probability of further price declines in the near term. That said, extreme bearish positioning raises the chance of a short squeeze if liquidity conditions improve, which could cause sharp but short-lived rebounds. For traders: expect elevated volatility, prioritize risk management (tight stops or reduced size around key supports), and watch liquidity clusters and macro signals for reversal cues. Over the longer term, if macro stability returns and ETF flows normalize, Bitcoin could resume its trend, but the current evidence supports a bearish bias until key supports hold.