Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Signals Local Bottom Amid Gold Rotation
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, comparing market value to realized value, has dropped below its 365-day moving average to around 1.9. CryptoQuant data shows that similar dips in 2021, June 2022 and early 2024 preceded rallies over 135%, 100% and 196%, signaling undervaluation and stronger accumulation by long-term holders. Concurrently, gold prices have pulled back 8.5% from record highs, prompting capital rotation into Bitcoin. MN Trading Capital warns that even a 5% shift from gold assets could drive Bitcoin toward $240,000, a view echoed by Bitwise analysts forecasting up to $242,000.
On-chain metrics reveal building momentum, with short-term targets near $115,000 and year-end forecasts between $150,000 and $165,000. A rebound above the 365-day MA may confirm a new cyclical bottom and usher in a bullish Q4 phase. Traders should monitor U.S. CPI data for signs of rate cuts, which could further boost risk appetite. The convergence of the MVRV ratio signal, gold capital rotation and macro triggers offers a compelling setup for Bitcoin trading strategies, suggesting attractive entry points and upside potential in both the near and long term.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dropping below the 365-day moving average historically marks cyclical bottoms and precedes strong price rallies. The concurrent pullback in gold prices and capital rotation into Bitcoin increases demand, while on-chain metrics confirm growing accumulation and momentum. Macro catalysts such as softer US CPI data and potential rate cuts further support risk-on sentiment. Together, these factors suggest both short-term upside toward $115,000 and longer-term targets above $150,000, underpinning a bullish outlook for Bitcoin trading.