BTC MVRV Z-score Hits Two-Year Low — Signals Bear Market Nearing End
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has fallen to its lowest level on a rolling two-year basis, signaling historically “undervalued” on-chain conditions that are deeper than the 2015, 2018, 2020 COVID crash and 2022 bear-market lows. Glassnode data highlighted by analysts James Easton and Michaël van de Poppe shows the metric sitting below prior green-zone readings. BTC/USD briefly tested roughly $81,040 amid a broad sell-off in risk assets and a sharp pullback in precious metals (gold and silver). Some traders and analysts interpret the record-low MVRV Z-score as a sign the bear market may be approaching its end and that current consolidation could be the setup for a sustainable bottom. However, short-term volatility remains, and this should not be treated as investment advice. Key keywords: Bitcoin, MVRV Z-score, Glassnode, BTC undervalued, bear market bottom, BTC price.
Bullish
The record-low MVRV Z-score is commonly interpreted as an on-chain indicator of undervaluation relative to realized value and historical volatility. Historically, readings at or below prior bear-market lows have coincided with multi-month to multi-year bottoms and subsequent recoveries. The fact that Glassnode’s metric has dropped below the 2015/2018/2020/2022 lows suggests long-term holders’ realized costs are well above current market prices, increasing the probability of supply-side relief and a price base forming. Short-term catalysts are mixed: synchronized weakness in risk assets and precious metals pushed BTC to roughly $81,040, which raises the risk of continued volatility and downside in the near term. Nevertheless, for traders the chief implication is a favorable risk-reward for accumulation or long-biased setups around on-chain support zones, provided risk management (position sizing, stop losses) accounts for potential short-term sweeps. In summary: the on-chain signal is structurally bullish for medium-to-long-term BTC price prospects, but short-term price action may remain choppy until macro risk assets stabilize.