Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score nears bear-market bottom but LTH profits stay elevated
After last week’s steep sell-off, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is rising toward the historical bear-market “green zone” around zero. The metric suggests BTC is approaching its realized fair value, a pattern that previously preceded major recoveries in past cycles (2014, 2018, 2022).
However, traders should treat this as a “near-bottom” signal, not confirmation. Wallet data shows Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains elevated versus Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV), which indicates long-term holders still hold substantial unrealized profits. Historically, the gap between LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV closing has aligned with cycle lows.
With the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score currently around 0.24 and showing proximity to the threshold, the market may be transitioning from capitulation toward stabilization. But if LTH profitability does not compress and selling pressure continues, BTC could test additional downside before a durable bottom forms.
Overall, this news highlights improving on-chain valuation conditions alongside ongoing “positioning” risk inside the holder cohort split.
Neutral
The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score nearing the zero “accumulation/green zone” is historically consistent with bear-market bottoms, which can support a tactical bounce. This creates a mild bullish underpinning for sentiment and for dip-buying.
But the article also flags that LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV have not converged. Long-term holders still show elevated unrealized profitability, implying that supply from profitable positions may not be fully exhausted. In past sell-offs, this kind of holder-cohort mismatch often means downside can extend even after valuation metrics look close to fair value.
So the likely near-term path is stabilization with volatility: some traders may front-run a rebound based on the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score signal, while others will wait for LTH/STH convergence (a stronger confirmation). Over the longer term, if the Z-Score continues to hold near zero and the LTH/STH gap tightens, it would improve odds of a sustained recovery. Until that happens, risk remains two-sided—hence a neutral classification.