Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq Ratio Turns Bullish After 235 Sessions
Bitcoin’s performance against technology stocks has turned bullish, according to Bitcoin Magazine’s analysis of the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio. The ratio reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 consecutive sessions below it and has not closed beneath the level since.
The analysis says Bitcoin was higher one year after five of six comparable moving-average reclaims, with a median gain of about 84%. It also describes the current 62% correction in the ratio as the shallowest reset on record, while noting that a similar signal in 2021 proved to be a false start. The ratio’s beta has fallen to 0.75, suggesting Bitcoin’s relative sensitivity to technology stocks has eased.
The technical outlook remains exposed to macroeconomic risks, including elevated oil prices and US Treasury yields. The analysis identifies $76,000–$77,000 as an invalidation zone and $100,000 as a key price level to watch. These indicators may support a bullish Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq outlook, but historical results do not guarantee future performance.
Bullish
The news is bullish because the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio has reclaimed its 200-day moving average after an unusually long period below it. That recovery suggests Bitcoin has begun outperforming technology stocks on a relative basis. The cited historical comparison is supportive: five of six similar reclaims were followed by a higher Bitcoin price one year later, with a median gain of roughly 84%. The reported 62% ratio reset and beta of 0.75 also suggest that some relative weakness and sensitivity to tech stocks may have already eased.
In the short term, traders may treat the reclaim as a momentum signal and use the $76,000–$77,000 area as a key level for reassessing the bullish setup. A sustained move toward or above $100,000 could reinforce positive sentiment, while a break below the stated invalidation zone could prompt profit-taking or weaken the signal. The comparison with the 2021 false start is a reminder that moving-average reclaims can fail, especially when market conditions change.
Over the longer term, the signal could support a view that Bitcoin is decoupling somewhat from technology stocks, but it is not proof of a lasting trend. The article also flags a difficult macro backdrop, including high oil prices and US Treasury yields near 5%, which could weigh on risk assets. The historical sample is small, so traders should treat the reported hit rate as context rather than a reliable forecast. Overall, the technical evidence leans bullish, but macroeconomic developments and price action around the cited levels remain important risks.